SpaceX (SPCX) shares recovered from an early decline on Tuesday as investors weighed another large batch of shares set to become available for trading this week.
The stock fell 4% to $140.55 in early trading after rising 4.5% Monday. Shares later recovered much of the decline and were trading about 1% lower.
About 319 million shares held by early investors and insiders are scheduled to become available for trading on August 20, adding to the supply of shares entering the market following SpaceX’s initial public offering in June.
SpaceX sold about 556 million new shares to the public at $135 each in early June, raising about $75 billion, excluding the underwriters’ overallotment option.
That represented a small portion of the roughly 13.2 billion shares outstanding.
More shares set to enter market
Unlike the typical single lockup period following an IPO, SpaceX has used a laddered approach, with shares becoming available at multiple intervals.
About 912 million shares became available for trading on August 6. Another 319 million shares are scheduled to unlock on August 20.
More than 700 million shares are expected to unlock in September, followed by more than 650 million in October. By the end of the year, about 4.9 billion SpaceX shares will have become available to trade.
That represents roughly 70% of the SpaceX shares not held by Elon Musk.
The supply of shares available for trading has been a major factor in SpaceX’s early market performance.
Investors have been cautious about buying shares ahead of potential profit-taking by early investors, contributing to the stock’s decline below $105 in July, well below its $135 IPO price.
The stock subsequently recovered following a strong second-quarter earnings report on August 4, and the first major share unlock on August 6.
Galloway calls SpaceX stock overvalued
The latest share unlock comes as investor and marketing professor Scott Galloway argues that SpaceX remains significantly overvalued despite its decline from its peak.
Galloway said on a podcast released Monday that he believes SpaceX shares are worth between $10 and $30.
“It’s still crazy overvalued,” Galloway said. “I think this is a $10 to $30 stock.”
At Monday’s closing price of $146, Galloway’s $30 upper estimate is about 79% below the market price, while his $10 estimate is about 93% lower.
SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 a share, giving the company a valuation of roughly $1.8 trillion.
The stock subsequently climbed to $225 before falling over 50% to $107. It has since recovered and traded above its IPO price for the past week.
Galloway argued that the valuation was partly supported by favorable market mechanics.
Only about 4% to 5% of SpaceX’s shares were initially available for public trading, limiting supply.
He also said SpaceX’s inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 created additional demand from index-tracking funds.
“Musk will go down as the greatest engineer of our time, but as a financial engineer,” Galloway said in the episode, which was recorded before SpaceX’s first quarterly earnings report in early August.
The average analyst price target for SpaceX is $226, according to FactSet, significantly above the stock’s current price.
The average 2027 revenue estimate is about $99 billion, more than double the 2026 expectation of roughly $44 billion.
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