Dogecoin (DOGE) is up by less than 1% on Thursday, climbing towards $0.085 despite a generally risk-off environment across cryptocurrency markets.
The recovery comes as large holders, commonly known as whales, appear to have paused recent profit-taking activity, temporarily easing selling pressure.
However, retail investors remain cautious, with futures market participation continuing to decline.
The momentum indicators remain bearish, suggesting that buyers are yet to fully regain control of the market.
Whale activity offers temporary relief
On-chain data from Santiment suggests that major DOGE holders have slowed their recent distribution activity.
Wallets holding more than 1 billion DOGE, often associated with exchanges, now control 47.14% of the total supply, up from 45.73% recorded on April 25.
Meanwhile, wallets holding between 10 million and 1 billion DOGE—a group typically viewed as influential whale investors—control 35.01% of supply, compared with 36.37% earlier in the period.
Despite the slowdown in whale selling, broader investor sentiment remains under pressure.
The percentage of DOGE supply currently in profit has fallen sharply to 37.85%, down from 58.01% on May 14.
This decline suggests that a growing share of investors are holding positions at a loss, which often weighs on market confidence and limits buying appetite.
Retail participation remains subdued, according to CoinGlass data.
Dogecoin futures Open Interest (OI) has stagnated around $1 billion, its lowest level since March 24.
The decline indicates that traders continue to withdraw capital from leveraged positions, reflecting reduced speculative activity and lower confidence in a near-term recovery.
Dogecoin price forecast: DOGE holds key support
The DOGE/USD 4-hour chart remains bearish as Dogecoin has stabilized above the critical $0.0800 support area after suffering a 14% decline last week.
The recent consolidation suggests dip buyers have emerged around this zone, preventing a deeper selloff for now.
While bearish pressure persists, some momentum indicators suggest selling intensity may be easing.
The RSI has recovered to around 50 and is now approaching the bullish region.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero, but its improving profile points to a moderation in downside momentum rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
If the sell-off resumes, the buyers will need to defend the $0.080 support level to stand a chance of bouncing back easily.
Failure to defend this support level could expose Dogecoin to lower demand zones around $0.0776.
A decisive break below this support zone could trigger another leg lower and push DOGE into unexplored downside territory.
However, if the market recovery persists, buyers will need to overcome the former support turned resistance level at $0.0897 to enable it to recapture the 50-day EMA at $0.0973.
For a more meaningful bullish reversal, Dogecoin would need to reclaim the $0.1000 level and establish support above it.
Dogecoin’s latest rebound has been aided by a pause in whale selling and signs of dip buying around the $0.0800 support zone.
However, declining investor profitability, shrinking futures participation, and a bearish technical structure suggest that the recovery remains fragile.
Unless DOGE can break above key resistance levels and attract renewed retail and institutional demand, the current move is likely to be viewed as a short-term relief rally rather than the start of a sustained uptrend.
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